Statistics on TF drop ingrediences over 140 raid completions

[Eth]

Completed raids:
Shadow Dragon: 71
Firepeaks: 69
Difficulty: 4 or 5 normal, rest EH and EE

Ingrediences gathered:
Ingots: 3186 (about 100 through explorer area)
Fire Scales: 1100
Shadow Scales: 1007
Fire Phlogiston: 54 (10 via end reward)
Shadow Phlogiston: 63 (10 via end reward)

Average ingrediences needed to craft a tier 3 weapon:
Ingots: 1200
Scales: 300
Phlogistons: 30
---
Ratio: 40:10:1

Ingrediences, that I actually got total:
Ingots: 3186
Scales: 2107
Phlogistons: 117
---
Ratio: 27.23:18:1


Conclusion:
- Droprate of scales is to high (it's set off a bit for shadow scales, since those are also needed for the armor)
- Droprate of ingots is way to low (I'm 1494 ingots short in order to check out evenly on the phlogistons) - with my statistics it's 52 runs to craft a single weapon T3, just for ingots

Suggestions:
- add another use for fire scales
- add a choice of 200 dwarven ingots as a choice for 20th completion reward (for me that would be 7x200 = 1400, so almost enough) or 10 ingots for single completion reward

Discuss

[Oxarhamar]

In your results:

scales are a bit high because, they scale up with difficulty

Ingots are a bit low because, they can be obtained in the explorer

Phlogiston scale with difficulty as well.

More interested in how many raid items dropped in all those runs even though you've done enough to have anything you like from the end rewards.

[TrinityTurtle]

Drop rates do not look high to me at all, there are a lot of people who are dual wielding who need two tier three weapons, as well as those crafting armors, and those who are crafting multipled types (for example one fire weapon and one shadow weapon) for situation uses. It took you three and a half sets of 20 + to get all that, seems a bit low to me, not high at all.

[Eth]

Ingots are a bit low because, they can be obtained in the explorer

Still after 140 completions, mostly on the higher diffs, I'm still 500 short of completing a third weapon.
And farming in the explorer, which I did quite a bit, is really slow. Some chests don't even drop them. Other 3-7.

[Seikojin]

I do think 20th for any raid where crafting ingredients are included, should have some bulky reward option. So like 20th on these can give a bunch of ingots (I think like 500 would make people go crazy for the raid), then 50 of the other ingredients. 20th should be a milestone and offer something besides a duplicate of what you can get farming for an hour.

[Purkilius]

Completed raids:
Shadow Dragon: 71
Firepeaks: 69
Difficulty: 4 or 5 normal, rest EH and EE

Ingrediences gathered:
Ingots: 3186 (about 100 through explorer area)
Fire Scales: 1100
Shadow Scales: 1007
Fire Phlogiston: 54 (10 via end reward)
Shadow Phlogiston: 63 (10 via end reward)

Average ingrediences needed to craft a tier 3 weapon:
Ingots: 1200
Scales: 300
Phlogistons: 30
---
Ratio: 40:10:1

Ingrediences, that I actually got total:
Ingots: 3186
Scales: 2107
Phlogistons: 117
---
Ratio: 27.23:18:1


Conclusion:
- Droprate of scales is to high (it's set off a bit for shadow scales, since those are also needed for the armor)
- Droprate of ingots is way to low (I'm 1494 ingots short in order to check out evenly on the phlogistons)

Suggestions:
- add another use for fire scales
- add a choice of 200 dwarven ingots as a choice for 20th completion reward (for me that would be 7x200 = 1400, so almost enough) or 10 ingots for single completion reward

Discuss

You are right I pointed this out shortly after the raids arrived esp. the ingots thing, had to sell a lot of my stuff to get enough ingots when I had enough phlogs!

[Purkilius]

Still after 140 completions, mostly on the higher diffs, I'm still 500 short of completing a third weapon.
And farming in the explorer, which I did quite a bit, is really slow. Some chests don't even drop them. Other 3-7.

Tried farming that to sickly slow...

[Cableman]

If it took you 140 raids to get almost 3200 ingots, how are people listing 10000 ingot on the ASAH? They would have to run about 440 raids and never use the ones they got. This doesn't make sense since they are only asking for 35 shards. Is duping rampant again, if so, why?

[Eth]

If it took you 140 raids to get almost 3200 ingots, how are people listing 10000 ingot on the ASAH?

Is duping rampant again, if so, why?

You just answered your question yourself. Can't tell you why. Ask the dupers

[darthhento]

If it took you 140 raids to get almost 3200 ingots, how are people listing 10000 ingot on the ASAH? They would have to run about 440 raids and never use the ones they got. This doesn't make sense since they are only asking for 35 shards. Is duping rampant again, if so, why?

what serve... oh, nevermind.

[thakorian]

I'd also say that the t2 ingot costs for additional slots should be lowered or ingot drops increased.

[Knight_slayer]

There should be more insentive to run EE. Triple or quadruple the ingots on EE maybe we would see some groups for that difficulty.

[imTonE]

Why not sell an item in the DDO store that increases the amount of ingots you get from chests by 50%? Lasts for 10 minutes.

[slarden]

Thank you for keeping these stats. I didn't keep stats except that I know on my main character ran the fire dragon raid over 120 times and the shadow dragon raid over 100. I took all the named items for my 20th rewards except the necklace and for the rest I took stack of 10 souls. Unlike you most of mine were EN/EH as EE raids were harder to come by.

I also noted that I was short on ingots, but fortunately for me and others on the server worked much harder than me and had stacks of 10,000 ingots up for auction for under 100 AS. I initially decided not to purchase these, but eventually caved primarily to help my guildies out that were working on tier 1 weapons.

My best guestimate on drop rates for souls is:

EN: 35%
EH: 70%
EE: 100% although when the raid was new I ran EE and didn't get a soul twice.

For 20th rewards, I like the idea of adding ingots, but I think it should be more like 500.

[Correlan]

Why not sell an item in the DDO store that increases the amount of ingots you get from chests by 50%? Lasts for 10 minutes.

More pay to win? I know a certain forum user who would have a field day if they ever sold something like that in the store............

[BigErkyKid]

Completed raids:
with my statistics it's 52 runs to craft a single weapon T3, just for ingots
rd

Discuss

52 runs, if you run the raid every 3 days it is more than 5 months for a single weapon. Or more than 10 if you only run it once a week. That means staying at cap to do that, because if you add TRs in between, the time increases a lot.

Given the current state of end game, who wants to spend 5 to 10 months at cap just to get that weapon?

(numbers could vary depending on the ingredient requirement you use. For instance, with ingots, its around 40 raids for a t3 weapon. But in any case you get the idea)

This is too much, specially considering it is a single weapon and hence most probably build specific. Suppose I craft a short sword. How many builds can use short swords in end game? If it is a caster stick, it will be again very specific.

Those drop rates are designed around the idea of people using raid bypassers. Otherwise it is not reasonable.

PS - And indeed if it takes 5 months without using raid bypassers no one should have those weapons yet, except the statistically lucky. The raid was released in march.

This stats show us how this whole new crafting system has been designed to milk players through raid bypassers.

[Oxarhamar]

52 runs, if you run the raid every 3 days it is more than 5 months for a single weapon. Or more than 10 if you only run it once a week. That means staying at cap to do that, because if you add TRs in between, the time increases a lot.

Given the current state of end game, who wants to spend 5 to 10 months at cap just to get that weapon?

(numbers could vary depending on the ingredient requirement you use. For instance, with ingots, its around 40 raids for a t3 weapon. But in any case you get the idea)

This is too much, specially considering it is a single weapon and hence most probably build specific. Suppose I craft a short sword. How many builds can use short swords in end game? If it is a caster stick, it will be again very specific.

Those drop rates are designed around the idea of people using raid bypassers. Otherwise it is not reasonable.

PS - And indeed if it takes 5 months without using raid bypassers no one should have those weapons yet, except the statistically lucky. The raid was released in march.

This stats show us how this whole new crafting system has been designed to milk players through raid bypassers.

OR the raids were ment to have a bit if longevity that has been destroyed by bypasses.

Bypasses are easy enough to buy off the AH even before they were available from cards players were posting them so no need to buy from the store yourself.

TR may get in the way of the raids but, it always has ETR however does not since there is no more Epic ML on quests. Run both at 23 a few times already.

[Oxarhamar]

Still after 140 completions, mostly on the higher diffs, I'm still 500 short of completing a third weapon.
And farming in the explorer, which I did quite a bit, is really slow. Some chests don't even drop them. Other 3-7.

Farming in the explorer can be slow but, I find the best time to do so is while the raid is forming.

Let's say the raid takes about 10-15 minutes to organize/fill. I pop in the explorer invis/haste and make a full round about checking the rares. Both the flagger mini bosses are always there unless someone has teleported to the raid already. The hidden chest under the stairs is always there also.

I wouldn't complain if the raid dropped more of course.


As For me

I've got more than 80 completions 2 tier 2 weapons & 1 tier 3. I am also shy only on ingots for my second tier 3 but, only because I made a dedicated ETR tier 2 before I made anything else.

20/20 Deathwyrm & Fire on thunder peaks with end reward phlogiston then ITR reset count 16/20 Deathwyrm/fire in thunder peak Endreward Dragon mask. ITR then random number of runs of each as I am in a repeating ITR cycle now so getting reset and not running many each life.

[droid327]

You are right I pointed this out shortly after the raids arrived esp. the ingots thing, had to sell a lot of my stuff to get enough ingots when I had enough phlogs!

This is exactly why they should keep the Ingot rate lower than the Phlog rate. It creates an economy for Ingots, which can be farmed outside the raid. So non-raiders can still partake in the TF trade market. Just like there's a market for GS items, and running Shroud doesn't provide everything you need in perfect proportionality.

Self-sufficiency isn't the goal of game design, its a broader question of *total* sources and sinks. And not everyone is going to keep raiding, especially after they complete their weapons - but they may still continue farming the adventure zone.

[Ghoulstorm]

OR the raids were ment to have a bit if longevity that has been destroyed by bypasses.

To me, that's way more than a bit of longevity. I bought the pack, but once I saw drop rates posted and looked at how long it was going to take for me to make something, I didn't even bother flagging for the raids. A month or 2 I'm fine with, but to seriously think that I could start running the raid today and unless I get a bunch of bypasses it may take me until February to get something made? If I miss some raids here and there it might be Mother's Day? That's ridiculous. I own all the packs and this is the only one I regret buying. I may end up running it some eventually for some of the named items, but realistically, by the time I got done farming some TF weapons, there will be a new pack with better weapons that I don't need to devote half a year to obtain.

I get the feeling they were trying to replicate the constant grinding of the old Epic Items to keep people running end game content, but that's another one I gave up on long ago. That kind of drawn out grind has been made a relic of the past by Turbine themselves and now that they've gotten folks used to a much quicker route to satisfaction there's not really any going back from my perspective.

I do agree about bypasses destroying longevity, they probably should've given them an 18-24 hour cooldown, but that wold cut into the bottom line.