Your math is way off. Quick accurate model for profile assumes never miss/graze. Add up "hits" of which there would be 19 for zero criticals. Add 1 hit for each potential bonus. So, a Kukri, which has 15x3x2 from VKF + Overwhelming Critical 19x1 + ED T5 19x1 has
35=15x3x2=19 (base) + 12 (6x2 from 15x3) + 4 (2x 19x1)
33=15x3x1=19 (base) + 12 (6x2 from 15x3) + 2 (1x 19x1) .. for your 19x1 example
CM+1 on those changes the "12" from 6x2 to "18" from 6x3 and the above becomes
41=15x4x2=19 (base) + 18 (6x3 from 15x4) + 4 (2x 19x1)
39=15x4x1=19 (base) + 18 (6x3 from 15x4) + 2 (1x 19x1) .. for your 19x1 example
If you want to compare them, divide. 39/33=18% or 41/35=17%. If you include patience rate reduction, multiplying by 0.90 isn't correct, but it's close, for 6.2% and 5.4%. Not sure where you're getting the magic 11%, but it's not from Kukri math.
IMHO, you may want to adjust your thinking on profile gains. Even the ~5% from adding 19x1 is similar to adding 20 MP to a 300 MP build, something that is often worth spending 20+ AP to get.
Patience v DL is bringing a knife to gun fight. One is pure CM+1. The other ties CM+1 to a drastic rate reduction. Kukri+DL = DPS+18%. Kukri+Patience = DPS+5.4%.
Getting back to DD Qstaff. 2H builds often use adrenaline and other activated for a BIG chunk of their DPS -- activateds that scale heavily on profile and who's CDs aren't increased by patience. It's much harder to napkin-math those versus autos, but gain without loss is win.
Qstaff with patience and actives feels nice, too. My current Qstaff TR'ing build uses it.
For OP's which should I do next Q, it depends. If you liked the SWF+Orb feel and want to improve that, punt the handaxe. It's only nice for swashbucklers.
VKF+Sky Pirate Dagger is good for 4->20 with an optional upgrade to Guardian of the Liturgy (doesn't look good at first, but it's 1d10 dice bumps up v.nicely with VFK's +1W). It's annoying to farm, though.
If you go with Dagger, I'd highly recommend taking
Item Defense from somewhere or your weapons can break very quickly. 1 Dark Hunter would be my pick for that, since it would also give trapping and 2s deflect arrows and item defense for 7 AP. It's a bit irksome that Ninja does not include item defense as it can be pretty important for a 1H weapon build in heroics before you can break most DRs.
I'd stick with the orb thought, but only because staying centered with one is a big deal for a monk; it's a DD signature style.