dozensnakes
Well-known member
Have you heard of publication bias?Not true. Also there's more than a few people here that have noticed more than average reaper items![]()
Have you heard of publication bias?Not true. Also there's more than a few people here that have noticed more than average reaper items![]()
No Kyrr is correct. for us normal people its obvious when they turn the tap on. sorry you wont notice. (btw highly edited to pass the bar!) if u need examples. i.e. did 3 runs of IoD. got 15 reaper items. normally maybe 1.. maybe 1...Have you heard of publication bias?
It's been known by now, no data is needed. If you argue because oF wHaTeR mAtH rElAtEd word, then it's your loss. Be a winner and get the getting while gettings good. Full transparency.
Ok, then what is the rate going up to? Approximately.No Kyrr is correct. for us normal people its obvious when they turn the tap on. sorry you wont notice. (btw highly edited to pass the bar!) if u need examples. i.e. did 3 runs of IoD. got 15 reaper items. normally maybe 1.. maybe 1...
Ok, then what is the rate going up to? Approximately.
enough to be afk until they turn it on? (if its reaper items u seek).Ok, then what is the rate going up to? Approximately.
If you don't control for how many items you get you can't tell if the underlying rate is 5%, 10% or 20%. Even with a fairly large well tracked sample there's still a good chance it's 5% and I got lucky.Not relevant, since loot boost weekends are not something we have any control over.
It does work, that's all that's needed to know. I got more reaper items this weekend than I did the previous year combined. That is not a lucky streak or anomaly.
Your academic approach while noble is tone deaf. You obviously never heard of the Wi Flag. Guess what? DDO absolutely has code from Asheron's Call.If you don't control for how many items you get you can't tell if the underlying rate is 5%, 10% or 20%. Even with a fairly large well tracked sample there's still a good chance it's 5% and I got lucky.
That's my issue, people are deciding to spend shards on the basis of this claim, so I want a higher degree of proof then I would want for bug reports.Your academic approach while noble is tone deaf. You obviously never heard of the Wi Flag. Guess what? DDO absolutely has code from Asheron's Call.
Like Dom said earlier, the players know the game better than the devs because we're the crowdsourced QA team. The players like me and others in this thread that have played for years know that weekend bonus treasure hunter boosts results in more reaper items. And that's good for SSG, because the shards will flow.
If you really want samples, collaborate with the Dungeon Helper/Scooper folks to come up with a way to capture looted named items (including rerolls). It's still going to be small samples because the treasure hunter boost window is only a weekend. You'll need dozens of folks providing data to achieve your statistically significant sample size.That's my issue, people are deciding to spend shards on the basis of this claim, so I want a higher degree of proof then I would want for bug reports.
Wi flag is also different in terms of observability and complexity. In that case you had a dozen mobs doing something they should do 25% of the time, ~80% of the time, repeatedly. With reaper bonuses, we are comparing a 5% rate to, maybe, a 10% rate across a few dozen samples. There could be an effect, but no one has shown me a sufficiently large sample, or a data mine showing that to be the case to the confidence I want.
The idea that a knowledgebased approach is useless because WI-flag existed is really dumb.Your academic approach while noble is tone deaf. You obviously never heard of the Wi Flag. Guess what? DDO absolutely has code from Asheron's Call.
Like Dom said earlier, the players know the game better than the devs because we're the crowdsourced QA team. The players like me and others in this thread that have played for years know that weekend bonus treasure hunter boosts results in more reaper items. And that's good for SSG, because the shards will flow.
That is a good idea, maybe I'll look into itIf you really want samples, collaborate with the Dungeon Helper/Scooper folks to come up with a way to capture looted named items (including rerolls). It's still going to be small samples because the treasure hunter boost window is only a weekend. You'll need dozens of folks providing data to achieve your statistically significant sample size.
5% is the number I've heard datamined, it could be wrong. If it's lower and someone could verify that then that would strengthen the case of it having an effect significantly.I'd believe the effective weekend rate is somewhere around 10%, anecdotally
I have zero confidence in that 5% number for non weekend. I think that's where your analysis falls apart. And that's something you can test over a much longer period, and then provide a true point of comparison for your TH weekend data
The sands wilderness point is particularly of interest imo, because the drop rates being bugged with potions there would be a pretty big deal, and it would be a much easier test since that should be minimum 25%.We don't know exactly what the bonus roll does and it seems neither does SSG.
In addition to increased reaper fragments I also see an increase in souls from feywild, star fragments from Saltmarsh, named augments from isle of dread on these bonus weekends. So I think the bonus helps with certain rolls and we can only figure out which ones from long-term experience of many players.
Sometimes things work worse than advertised in this game too. After running iconic characters with the saltmarsh potion + anniversary buff (+25% total) I noticed no drop rate improvement in the sands wilderness. So I think at least some older content isn't boosted by discovery elixirs.
After several years of running with the weekend bonus I am convinced it improves reaper bonus drop rates and a few other things. I do change my activity on those weekends which by itself would lead to more reaper fragments such as running vecna, feywild, iod, etc. I don't reroll for reaper fragments, but sometimes the combination of needing some items + the bonus weekend does result in selective rerolls. For example I needed greater heroism augments on several accounts so I ransacked and rerolled that one chest in feywild and I made a massive haul from just that chest x 8 x 6 alts. I actually end up not rerolling much because I stop once I get a reaper item or gh augment and it was rare I rerolled 3 times and I came up dry.
The problem currently is I rarely need items from content where you get the most bonuses. And when I get a rare item I need with a reaper bonus on a loot bonus weekend it's usually the wrong bonus which prevents me from putting the bonus I want on the item.
I will also note that the reaper drop rate for artifacts seems to be improved the most. I get so many reaper boot bonuses with vecna artifacts and still almost never see the good helm reaper bonus or good ring reaper bonuses - even on loot bonus weekends.
I am happy to work on a data collection project, but as already noted that would be better as part of an SSG or third-party collection tool as relying on people's self-reports isn't good data - especially when those people may have a strong opinion they believe to be fact. There is no way to filter out self-reports that are completely made up.
It's always the people with the strongest opinions on the forums that self-report big data collection projects which coincidently matches their strong opinion.
In addition, what content you run matters as well. I received significantly more reaper fragments from vecna and feywild compared to lamordia. This has to be factored into a data collection project as well.