I can add my own experience to this. I got a friend to join us in playing DDO 2 years ago. He was new to the game. When he got to the level to play it we went to Jack Jibbers. He got it on the second play through. Where as after the rest of us had gotten ours years before and had played it at 200+ times over the years never ever saw a second one second one since.
The named item drop rate in this game is broken (with proof)
- Thread starter Cowzrul
- Start date
Just so I'm clear on what you're saying. Fallen age are not rare, but golden age are. But but both are are the weapons loot table?
Buddha5440
"There are some who call me...Tim"
It could have something to do with it being an exclusive item. If you have one in your inventory you can't claim it from the chest, even if it were to show up.
If that is the case, why have it in the pool of possible items to show up?
Elsewhere, the mechanism you're proposing doesn't apply. In particular the Windhowler Bracers in Blockade Buster, the Rose Quartz Sigil from White Plume, and the Darkstorm Helm from Servants I've all gotten with one in my inventory and I've destroyed the one I had if the new had a better bonus.
So Jibbers may well have special rules as it's a unicorn piece, but other exclusive items definitely drop for people who have them in inventory.
I think I've passed a Jibbers to someone when I already had one, I've definitely been in parties when that's happened.
Kimbere
Well-known member
Some of us have been saying something similar for years. https://forums.ddo.com/index.php?th...s-game-is-broken-with-proof.17549/post-222954
Take CitW for example - back when it was mainstream/endgame, it was farmed daily/weekly by multiple groups with many players burning timer bypasses in order to ransack it on multiple toons every week. During this time, it became fairly commonplace for an entire raid of 12 players to pull a total of no more than 3-4 named weapons per run. That was 3-4 named items per 72 chances (6 chests x 12 players) which was far below the standard 33%.
Time went by and newer content became the flavor of the day and CitW was run less and less frequently. Fast forward four to five years where you might see one CitW LFM posted every couple weeks at best. A guildie wanted something from CitW for TRs and asked for help farming it. We roll in with 12 players and pulled 14+ items and a few stat tomes. It was shocking and everyone in the raid commented on it. We proceed to run it a few more times over the next two weeks and named loot is dropping like candy at Halloween.
I fully suspect that if we had continued to run it multiple times per week for a few months, the named drops would have tapered back down to 2-4 per raid on average like it used to be in it's heyday.
For example:
Correct. Golden Age are the rares on the weapon loot table. Fallen Age are the non-rares on the same weapon loot table.
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sounds as good a reason as anything else
I wanted to update this thread because I have now hit 300 tracked chests.
My named item drop rate remains 24% - 72 out of 300 quests. The probability of this occurring, however, assuming a "true" 34% drop rate, has dropped to 0.000111, or 1 in 9000.
I also encountered yet another very long streak of "no drops", which has led to those occurring at a rate 46x more likely than expected, rather than 37 times in the original post. Using the formula posted in this thread by a poster who's name I can't recall, the likelihood of encountering this many streaks is 0.00000969
The 95% confidence interval for all 300 chests is that the drop rate is between 0.20 and 0.29
The 99% confidence interval is between 0.186 and 0.314
The binomial test probability of getting this result is 0.00011
If anything, my "luck" has gotten very slightly worse, and continues to show that the drop rate is roughly 10% lower than advertised by SSG. The "streakyness" of the drops has also gotten worse, as I've gotten another very long streak of "no drops" beyond what is expected.
I have also started tracking the specific difficulty and character for the last 52 drops, and the estimated theoretical drop rate is 34.72%, although I suspect it is actually higher since I didn't track high reaper runs in the first few hundred drops.
My named item drop rate remains 24% - 72 out of 300 quests. The probability of this occurring, however, assuming a "true" 34% drop rate, has dropped to 0.000111, or 1 in 9000.
I also encountered yet another very long streak of "no drops", which has led to those occurring at a rate 46x more likely than expected, rather than 37 times in the original post. Using the formula posted in this thread by a poster who's name I can't recall, the likelihood of encountering this many streaks is 0.00000969
The 95% confidence interval for all 300 chests is that the drop rate is between 0.20 and 0.29
The 99% confidence interval is between 0.186 and 0.314
The binomial test probability of getting this result is 0.00011
If anything, my "luck" has gotten very slightly worse, and continues to show that the drop rate is roughly 10% lower than advertised by SSG. The "streakyness" of the drops has also gotten worse, as I've gotten another very long streak of "no drops" beyond what is expected.
I have also started tracking the specific difficulty and character for the last 52 drops, and the estimated theoretical drop rate is 34.72%, although I suspect it is actually higher since I didn't track high reaper runs in the first few hundred drops.
Being an exlusive item doesn´t affect the drop chance in itself. You are correct that you can´t claim it from the chest, but they still can drop (that happened to me several times, though not with Jibbers). You can give it to another party member, so it´s a good thing it works that way.
This supports the clumping theory.
thank you
From the number of Twisted Talismans I've pulled through the years almost every life, having an exclusive item in your inventory doesn't preclude you from getting a second one. I have not only enough to equip all active characters and mules, but I've gotten the upgraded replacements with the profane lifeforce for all my active characters and a few mules, and even crafted several into epic to feed.
From my experience, DDO generates loot based on "Can I use This Now?" If yes, then it will never drop. Thus I'm getting caster gear on my current Bardbarian life on my main. Mostly necro/INT stuff. I haven't ran a caster wizard in over a decade.
When I get some free time I'll try to do some autocorrelation analysis on the data. I'm almost certain it's going to confirm there's something odd going on just because of the unlikelihood of the streaks that are observed, but it's another way to look at the data that might be interesting. I'll just have to spend a little time to figure out how to do it in Excel because I don't have access to Matlab at home like I do at work.
Another test that I guess I could do fairly quickly would be to do a bunch of /roll 1d100s and analyze those and see if they're unusually distributed. To the best of my knowledge the loot tables are based on series of d100 rolls, so that might be a clue. Although if the root of the problem is some poorly implemented seeding of the random number generator that wouldn't necessarily show up doing that test, unless I quit and restart the game a bunch of times during the data generation.
Is it possible to get the game to write chat log contents out to a file? Or copy/paste from the chat windows? I've never tried to do that.
I've tried this and the numbers look right. This is in stark contrast to, say, the daily dice roles, which are also d100 and also CLEARLY bugged(during the VIP daily old roles I got a 1-20 about 90% of the time). I suspect the rolling mechanism in the chat channel runs on entirely different code from the rolls used for everything else.
This makes a lot of sense if you think about it. The chat system using an entirely separate server from the rest of the game. So it stands to reason the /roll command is a separate matter.
It used to be but hasn't been in a while. Talk to the AwesomeAF people, I bet they can work something out.
That is a great point I hadn't considered that chat is on a separate server, and could be implemented in an entirely different manner, so that would just be a waste of time. It's also plausible that the dice rolls for everything are implemented differently and only some of them have issues. I have also anecdotally noticed failing skill rolls with exactly the same roll over and over again, but I've never logged any data for that. I'm unsure if there is anything in the game that allows for continuous skill checks? I guess UMD, except that'll use up a lot of platinum over time.
I did start tracking of daily dice rolls for a period of time but stopped before I got a large sample size.
Years ago there was a working combat logger. More than one user reported statistically improbable numbers of 1s being rolled. One guy quit over it. Then they patched whatever made the logger work.
So? Plat is plentiful and worthless. The cost of 1,000 UMD checks is one mad weekend of vendor trash.
I logged over 1,000 DD rolls across 7 servers and found wildly improbably numbers. During the entire year-ish of daily gold rolls for VIPs I think I got higher than 50 maybe 10 times? That should be physically impossible.
Xaerxiessia
Lost in Translation
You can copy / paste but sadly line by line only.
And do not analyze dice rolls for stabilization checks when you're in the unconscious range, you'd be scared by the results. [/ironical mode on]
Bobbryan2
Well-known member
It's weird how someone who doesn't know what the word random means thinks they should make a post explaining their idea of what it means.
Here's a hint. If the RNG has a 33% drop rate... it's not random.
Aelonwy
DDO's Cosmetic Fashionista
That's interesting. I am not refuting it but for a long time there my family played together and almost exclusively together such that there was little to no difference in time played in the game between our accounts, at least questing time. I think I probably spent more time doing inventory maintenance but I'm more OCD about that stuff than hubby and son doesn't care about organizing his inventory at all.
Buddha5440
"There are some who call me...Tim"
You should tell your landlord to double your rent, because I'm living there for free.