The named item drop rate in this game is broken (with proof)

[Kimbere]

No one is saying the Devs are intentionally putting a hand on the scale against the players getting named drops.

That’s asinine, they are running a business and doing something so petty in the long term will turn off their customers and hurt profits more than anything extra they can make off shard sales.

However . . .

That does not excuse the fact that the numbers are far off what they are advertised. (No amount of blind fanboi’ing is going to refute these numbers. And if you don’t believe these numbers what about the enormous anecdotal evidence over the years from all walks of life of players going, “hmmmm… something seems off.”)

My guess is that it’s a BUG that even the Devs are not quite sure about. The chest named loot drop code is probably up there in terms of both importance and the amount of hands that had a go at it.

It’s going to be hard to figure out exactly what’s going on. Who knows if it’ll ever get resolved?

You seem to have misread my post and/or replied to the wrong one.

 

[Cowzrul]

I've taken statistics on named item drops multiple times.

What I found is that "as long as an unfortunate wave of bad RNG doesn't hit, the drop rate converges to the expected value."

When I farm items, I use six accounts and the same six characters, always joining them in the same order before starting and keeping track of the drop count.

If I feel like I'm experiencing a bad RNG wave, I stop farming.
When the wave isn't there, the drop rates seem to follow the expected statistics.

I believe the issue in DDO is not with the drop rate itself, but rather with an algorithmic problem that causes bias in the RNG.
Whether this is an issue within the random number subroutine, if it's caused by reusing a single random seed across multiple players and locations, or if factors like names or classes are affecting it, no one, including SSG, knows for sure.

I don't mean to be offensive, I just have no other way to describe this than "the drop rates are as expected when I remove the data when they aren't dropping as expected" which doesn't seem like a very compelling counter argument.

 

[Buddha5440]

Wow, wait is this a joke?

My stats teacher would love you. Casinos probably do also.

That's fine because statistics and probability are not the same thing.

 

[Jasparius]

I believe the issue in DDO is not with the drop rate itself, but rather with an algorithmic problem that causes bias in the RNG.
Whether this is an issue within the random number subroutine, if it's caused by reusing a single random seed across multiple players and locations, or if factors like names or classes are affecting it, no one, including SSG, knows for sure.

I have a similar theory on the effect of names. In my static group the character with the name which starts earliest in the alphabet gets attacked first (until we start fighting and the threat rules take over).

This overwhelmingly has happened over the last 10 or 12 years.

 

[Catholicon]

Should be. Doesn't seem to be in my experience.

I had been keeping track of how much named loot drops for me and my hubby and my kids from Ravenloft U37 until just after IoD dropped U54 though I stopped tracking my daughter after Feywild. My results indicated my son got approximately 4x as many named items dropping for his characters as opposed to my characters. My hubby got about twice as many named items than I.

I regularly have long streaks of nothing dropping in my characters' name even though I am running the same quests and same difficulty as hubby and son, running with them. I have completed multiple sagas on elite with nothing dropping for me. Hubby occasionally has a streak of poor loot, son is the opposite... he will have long streaks of nearly every chest giving him something. But please keep in mind the trends I have seen are across years of playing with them and across lots of varied content. It is my opinion that there is something that makes an account lucky or unlucky. Server might also be a factor, that is if the flag is server bound perhaps an account is lucky on one server and unlucky on another.

See this post:

Back in the days of Asheron's Call, Turbine's code has a phenomenon called the "Wi Flag" where certain characters had a hidden value that made them more likely to be attacked by monsters, regardless of anyone else in the party.

While that specific feature was eventually patched out, I wonder if back when Turbine started to write DDO's code, something similar was inadvertently implemented for chest loot drop rates, and that over the two decades since DDO was first written, that specific quirk has been forgotten about or overlooked by any new developers who have joined the team since back then.

 

[Weaponalpha]

So on R1 you are 34% likely to get a named item. This means you are not likely to get anything. When you get nothing more than you get anything the vast majoirity i.e. 66% of the time, you FEEL you never get anything. Your "statistical anaylysis" is your FEELINGS. You really get into your feelings when you reroll and continue to get nothing. But do go on...

 

[nenetteblackmoor]

I don't mean to be offensive, I just have no other way to describe this than "the drop rates are as expected when I remove the data when they aren't dropping as expected" which doesn't seem like a very compelling counter argument.

That's different.
The fact that it operates normally unless something affecting the RNG occurs, and using biased RNG, are completely different meanings.

An earthquake only shakes when it occurs.

 

[Cowzrul]

That's different.
The fact that it operates normally unless something affecting the RNG occurs, and using biased RNG, are completely different meanings.

To word this differently, are you saying that you think sometimes the drop rate functions differently than other times? I suppose that could tie into the theory about a "global ransack" mechanic where other players frequently running something can affect the drop rate. Or be some other effect entirely.

 

[Felsyn]

Back in the days of Asheron's Call, Turbine's code has a phenomenon called the "Wi Flag" where certain characters had a hidden value that made them more likely to be attacked by monsters, regardless of anyone else in the party.

While that specific feature was eventually patched out, I wonder if back when Turbine started to write DDO's code, something similar was inadvertently implemented for chest loot drop rates, and that over the two decades since DDO was first written, that specific quirk has been forgotten about or overlooked by any new developers who have joined the team since back then.

Oh the Wi Flag. We used to laugh about it being in Asheron's Call 2 too. It was related to the InstanceID your character was created with (0xW5JH7JWU). The game would look for who to put aggro on and because of some very strange math, it would always select the same people if they were on the threat meter. It basically was supposed to roll between 0 and 3 but actually rolled between 0 and 1 and would select the first couple people on the list, sorted by their instanceID.

If anything Turbine has more experience than anyone solving such obscure issues in the code. I think any loot bugs here would just be due to many layers of maths on top of one another and not something as insane as the Wi Flag was. Also, we share some networking code and stuff from AC1 but that is about it. We have much more in common with AC2 and LOTRO.

Edit - Microsoft basically forced the engine we use now to get released without much documentation and without reusing AC1 code. Any loot bugs were created nice and fresh with AC2.
"AC2 was originally going to be a true sequel to Asheron's Call. Our publisher Microsoft had high hopes that it would be such a perfect "replacement" that everybody would just switch over to AC2 and Microsoft could shut down the AC1 servers. (Of course, that would never happen with an MMO sequel, but it was pretty much the first MMO sequel ever, so nobody knew!)

But the going was tough. The techies at Turbine felt this was their last chance to create a new, better game engine. They had visions of their engine powering hundreds of different games and Turbine getting residuals forever.

So AC2 ended up using very little of AC1's code. Because of all the low-level changes, it was impossible to reuse any of AC1's game logic. Every game mechanic had to be written from scratch, even the parts that we wanted to be exactly the same. That made it impossible to create "AC1 with more stuff." There just wasn't time." - Eric Heimburg

 

[Elminster]

So on R1 you are 34% likely to get a named item. This means you are not likely to get anything. When you get nothing more than you get anything the vast majoirity i.e. 66% of the time, you FEEL you never get anything. Your "statistical anaylysis" is your FEELINGS. You really get into your feelings when you reroll and continue to get nothing. But do go on...

This has nothing to do with “FEEL”. The OP is giving us HARD data. Data that’s not ignorable.

 

[nenetteblackmoor]

To word this differently, are you saying that you think sometimes the drop rate functions differently than other times? I suppose that could tie into the theory about a "global ransack" mechanic where other players frequently running something can affect the drop rate. Or be some other effect entirely.

That's right. I don't think a normal distribution would occur as long as the random number seeds are shared.
The algorithm of the program can easily disrupt the normal distribution of the random numbers.

 

[Cowzrul]

That's right. I don't think a normal distribution would occur as long as the random number seeds are shared.
The algorithm of the program can easily disrupt the normal distribution of the random numbers.

Can you tell me why I *only* get the stingy version that doesn't give out named loot then? :ROFLMAO:

 

[nenetteblackmoor]

Can you tell me why I *only* get the stingy version that doesn't give out named loot then? :ROFLMAO:

If I knew that, I wouldn't be farming items right now. lol

 

[dozensnakes]

Whether or not the drop rates are off, I would really like better transparency so we knew what the rates are supposed to be.

Years ago, one of the previous devs confirmed that code existed which modified loot drop rates in the first few weeks of new content releases. That was related to VIP perks being different and VIPs getting early access to new conent for a few weeks before it was released to the public.

Do you recall where this was stated?

 

[Peated Problems]

That's fine because statistics and probability are not the same thing.

My dude. I can't tell if you're trolling or confused. It's a real issue where the line between trolling and... unique perspective on math is blurred these days.

Each coinflip has a 50-50 chance, assuming it's a perfect coin.
The odds of getting 5 heads in a row is low... but if you do get 5 heads in a row, the odds of getting heads a 6th time is 50%.

Each flip is an dependent 50-50, regardless of what came before it. And that flip won't affect the flip afterwards.

 

[Cowzrul]

This has nothing to do with “FEEL”. The OP is giving us HARD data. Data that’s not ignorable.

My facts don't care about weaponalpha's feelings. Let's make DDO great again, fix the named item drop rate.

 

[Felsyn]

My dude. I can't tell if you're trolling or confused. It's a real issue where the line between trolling and... unique perspective on math is blurred these days.

Each coinflip has a 50-50 chance, assuming it's a perfect coin.
The odds of getting 5 heads in a row is low... but if you do get 5 heads in a row, the odds of getting heads a 6th time is 50%.

Each flip is an dependent 50-50, regardless of what came before it. And that flip won't affect the flip afterwards.

6 heads in a series the math works out to .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 or 1.5625% chance of occurring.

Which was the odds of me pulling those 6 filigrees in a row the other day. Ok I will see myself out.

 

[AMess]

Oh the delicious chaos!! We farm in a field where crops seldom grow, we chase ghosts in a machine from calculations long forgotten. we loot treasure that fractionality changes the rate of future farming.

Dunno, I hate farming, I like challenges and helping buddies though a dungeon, but when game play is reduced to intense drop rate calculation, it's less of a game and more of a chore....make the game less about the loot and more about the fun.

 

[Cowzrul]

Oh the delicious chaos!! We farm in a field where crops seldom grow, we chase ghosts in a machine from calculations long forgotten. we loot treasure that fractionality changes the rate of future farming.

Dunno, I hate farming, I like challenges and helping buddies though a dungeon, but when game play is reduced to intense drop rate calculation, it's less of a game and more of a chore....make the game less about the loot and more about the fun.

I really enjoy this post, because I really, really love playing this game, and trying new builds, and experiencing playing those builds through new content. I really hate running the same build through the same content over and over and over again through one quest, trying to get the gear I need to play a new build through the totality of the content the game has to offer. I'm not sure I would be satisfied with the theoretical 33% drop rate, given how that can still take a lot of runs to get a particular item you need, but the fact that the actual drop rate is significantly lower than that, is what motivated me to log this data and do this analysis. I just want the game to be enjoyable.

I also wish the game had a content creator tool where people could create their own adventures, in the style of Star Trek Online. I think that would make this literally the perfect game for me. (If the drop rates were reasonable)

 

[Lominal]

Do you have the raw data of this where I could look at it? This is also more than enough samples that it should have converged to within a percentage point of the real drop rate, so the fact that it was approximately 6% off is incredibly unlikely.

unfortunately it was just a notepad with did I get an item// how many runs (or rerolls)

also because I didnt want to skew results I ran a simulation that rerolled until it rolled an item (for example if I was farming a specific item or stopped on a reaper boost) to ensure this doesnt change the droprate from the sample (it doesnt)