The named item drop rate in this game is broken (with proof)

[erethizon1]

They need to increase the drop rate of chests by 5 to 10% a year. There is no harm in ten year old quests having a 60 to 100% drop rate so you get something every time you run the quest. This would help make up for imperfections in the code that results in a lower drop rate than what should be happening.

 

[Cowzrul]

They need to increase the drop rate of chests by 5 to 10% a year. There is no harm in ten year old quests having a 60 to 100% drop rate so you get something every time you run the quest. This would help make up for imperfections in the code that results in a lower drop rate than what should be happening.

I really don't understand why there isn't a catchup mechanic like this in the game already. For example Sharn and Ravenloft - the whales have already gotten anything they could possibly want from these expansions. They aren't rerolling these with shards trying to get mythic/reaper bonuses on the items from this content. Someone like me that took a many year break, could really use a bunch of gear from these expansions, just so I can be effective in legendary content. I have run a bunch of these quests a whole bunch of times to just get the items, but most people probably aren't as stubborn as I am. Is there any real downside to letting new/returning players have easy access to really old items? I don't think there is a downside to it.

And it makes me really, really mad that the drop rates are significantly lower than the devs have claimed, in this old content that doesn't matter to their bottom line. I also think there should be a huge amount of quality of life improvements made to old content in the game, like removing lockouts and flagging from damn near everything in the game. Please just make it easy for people to enjoy the content of the game.

 

[Broken Old Monk]

I haven't had any named items dropped in a bunch of tries for the 3BC runearm and Perfect Pinnicale Ring from Invitation to Dinner........... Almost seems worse with the buff.......

 

[Broken Old Monk]

Or just increase the number of times a chest can be looted before it gets ransacked by about 10 to 20 times what it currently is 8 I believe........ stinks for event chests..........

 

[Xgya]

I just wish we had pity timers on named loot.
I don't know exactly how it'd work, but since some people do seem to be extremely unlucky compared to others, it seems fine to let everyone have a sprig of luck every now and then.
I can understand why such a mechanic could be misused (some named chests are a lot harder to get to than others, knowing you're 100% going to get a named item next chest would encourage you to go to these a lot more), but keeping it mostly random would help.

My suggestion would be improving the base drop percentage every time you open a named chest until you get a named item from one. Getting a named item would drop that improvement back some, either partially or fully.

 

[Jaspar]

So on R1 you are 34% likely to get a named item. This means you are not likely to get anything. When you get nothing more than you get anything the vast majoirity i.e. 66% of the time, you FEEL you never get anything. Your "statistical anaylysis" is your FEELINGS. You really get into your feelings when you reroll and continue to get nothing. But do go on...

People are tracking thousands of chest loots and seeing the actual average nowhere near the claimed average.

That isnt a feel. That is analysis. Assuming they are tracking correctly, the likelihood of them just having bad luck is tiny.

Multiply this by many people doing it and the likelihood of just bad luck is fractions of fractions.

But sure, mayby you are right and its just them.

Not the code being flawed because there is no way there is flawed code in this game - while I still struggle with ladders after 16 years of playing.

 

[PersonMan]

What seems apparent is that our statistical loot percentages are often not aligning with the indicated probability, and generally the outcome seems to be lower than projected.

I think we would need to know a lot more about DDO's RNG. RNG seed generation and advancement could be happening in just about any number of ways. What we do know is that it does hit clusters of excessive low numbers and sometimes clusters of high numbers.

I once received 130 reaper fragments in a single weekend, where normally (doing the same stuff) I average about 10, but sometimes get 0.
With a guildmate, we once ran soul splitter chain and both had a named item and an artifact drop in every single quest.

It just really seems like the RNG skews for or against the player for any uncertain duration.

 

[Jaspar]

What seems apparent is that our statistical loot percentages are often not aligning with the indicated probability, and generally the outcome seems to be lower than projected.

I think we would need to know a lot more about DDO's RNG. RNG seed generation and advancement could be happening in just about any number of ways. What we do know is that it does hit clusters of excessive low numbers and sometimes clusters of high numbers.

I once received 130 reaper fragments in a single weekend, where normally (doing the same stuff) I average about 10, but sometimes get 0.
With a guildmate, we once ran soul splitter chain and both had a named item and an artifact drop in every single quest.

It just really seems like the RNG skews for or against the player for any uncertain duration.

Ive only ever got a single Reaper fragment each time.

 

[J1NG]

The reason players get trolled by RNG is because of an external factor to DDO. You won't believe me, but it's personal based. This is why one criteria of the tests I conducted and continue to do so, forces myself to continue to play even when it gets super boring, aches develop from sitting in the same posture zerging the quests, etc. As well as run at times that are not predetermined.

Because it's in hopes to capture moments when such personal "luck" does not influence the outcome from what DDO gives me.

I've said before that I've noticed oddities with accounts and characters that appear to have a crazy amount of luck with them for drops. Yet when we hand them off to someone else, they don't keep that same luck.

Some people are just born "unlucky" for stuff like games. Meaning you will always get the worse end of RNG compared to others. Some others are very "lucky" and thus always gets the better end of RNG compared to others. On stuff like this, statistics or probability maths can not help with. After all, how many statistics or probability math is able to tell you who or why certain people are just so good at the roulette table? It's certainly not skill, and there's definitely no RNG bias from the wheel. So what else is there?

J1NG

 

[Sophie The Cat Burglar]

I have zero of pretty much any gen2 rare filigree... so odds for some stuff is so bad.

Rabidfox, I just went through my Dimensional Augment Bag dedicated to rare filigrees. Using filigree information from the DDO Wiki, I counted 84 rare, Generation Two Filigrees in my bag. This total does not include Darkhallow or Shards of Machanus filigrees because I always destroy the former and sell the latter. I have never slotted a rare, Generation Two Filigree but may have sold one here and there.

I mention this as support for the hypothesis that rare, Generation Two Filigrees do not drop in Reaper Mode. Since I pedominantly play Legendary Normal and Legendary Hard, my stockpile lends some support to the idea. It should also be noted that I very rarely run Sharn quests. Most of my filigrees very probably came from the first 4 Lost Gatekeepers quests. I never run the fifth one.

During the current loot boost, I ran the first 4 Lost Gatekeepers quests on Legendary Hard a number of times and did see some rare filigrees.

Sorry for veering away from the main topic but I thought this information might be useful.

 

[Peated Problems]

6 heads in a series the math works out to .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 or 1.5625% chance of occurring.

Which was the odds of me pulling those 6 filigrees in a row the other day. Ok I will see myself out.

If you get 6 heads in a row, the odds of the next coin being heads is 50% again.

Each flip has the same chance of being heads or tails. It's unlikely to get a streak, but each is the same 50%.

 

[Kimbere]

Whether or not the drop rates are off, I would really like better transparency so we knew what the rates are supposed to be.

Do you recall where this was stated?

It was many years ago on the old forums. I used to have a link saved but apparently deleted it without realizing it while doing some PC cleanup a few months ago.

I've posted the links to that dev comment along with a few other loot RNG related post links a couple times over the past few years, so if you're motivated enough, you might be able to dig back through my old posts and find it that way.

I'd look for it myself, but I've got a cold or something and not feeling well enough to put in the effort at the moment.

 

[Ying]

The Myth Drannor rare drop rate absolutely sucks. 576 chest pulls in Oghma's Song and 0 rare medium armor. All done on R1-R5, with the 10% djinn buff and 2/3 of those pulls also running Greater Elixir of Discovery. It's such a scam.

@ SSG Devs: What's the point of putting items in the game that are so difficult to obtain? It doesn't keep players around longer as a "chase item" -- it drives them away. Not being able to get the loot you want is FRUSTRATING. That's the last things games should be. There's no challenge to beating the RNG.

The Gen 2 rare filigree has been an issue since Sharn was released nearly six years ago. You can look through patch notes and see that it was supposedly fixed twice. It hasn't been fixed. Shattered Device rare filigree remain stupidly rare.

It's shameful.

 

[jacko]

I've no problem with chase items, but they should be limited to artefacts and more hidden behind raid loot mechanics than simple arbitrary and inelegant rare quest drop rates.

The treatment in general of augments is pretty disgusting IMO, both in terms of rarity and also inability to trade many of them. No Idea why that need be the case.

 

[Ying]

I've no problem with chase items, but they should be limited to artefacts and more hidden behind raid loot mechanics than simple arbitrary and inelegant rare quest drop rates.

Raid items are infinitely easier to obtain than MD rare items because of runes. Artifacts aren't limited to raids either. That was initially done with the introduction of minor artifacts with Sharn, and the community backlash was so great SSG added artifacts to quest end chests and the saga.

 

[rabidfox]

Raid items are infinitely easier to obtain than MD rare items because of runes. Artifacts aren't limited to raids either. That was initially done with the introduction of minor artifacts with Sharn, and the community backlash was so great SSG added artifacts to quest end chests and the saga.

I wish MD artifacts were on the raid loot table/for runes; haven't gotten any of them yet, not even the typical "got it on the wrong character" that I'd have happen with prior content's artifacts.

 

[woq]

I wish MD artifacts were on then raid loot table/for runes; haven't gotten any of them yet, not even the typical "got it on the wrong character" that I'd have happen with prior content's artifacts.

I have a *stupid* amount of pulls on Voices and I have yet to pull the ring myself, even once. I have been passed one on my main though which is nice.

FWIW: in that time - i have passed two solar imbuement augments and over 5 crownblade heavies to other people, and looted some for my own use in the meantime. It's just stupid.

Also, the fix to loot they did seems to be a honeymoon phase or something. Spent now 3 days ransacking before djinni buff is no longer accessible : multiple full group full djinni buffs ransack runs of voices, secrets of red wizards, book burning and portal - 2 rares total, and rare loot has only been a thing when running EE. This with some people astral rolling too... Makes no sense.

 

[Felsyn]

If you get 6 heads in a row, the odds of the next coin being heads is 50% again.

Each flip has the same chance of being heads or tails. It's unlikely to get a streak, but each is the same 50%.

Each flip is independent. But, we are playing a game where you are constantly looting in a series, so we are dealing much more with those series probabilities which are very low.

For example, " I looted this chest 6 times in a row and never got a filigree!" - this would be rare to occur at 4.7% (using failure of trial which is independent)
"I looted this chest 6 times and got 6 filigrees" - extremely rare at .13% chance

or my favorite
"I looted this chest 6 times and got 2 filigrees (33%) - about a 33% chance to occur

The difference between looting 1 filigree and 2 is also only 5% at 28%. So you can get 1 filigree and feel robbed when the odds of 1 or 2 were very similar.

TLDR; These cases happen even though each roll is a 33% chance at it. Independently the 33% is there each time, but in a series it messes with peoples heads. (sorry for the edits)

 

[Aelonwy]

I am a little confused when people are talking about Filigrees dropping. It is my experience that filigrees always or almost always drop in content to which they can drop in addition to named items. That is I can get filigree in quests that drop filigree the whole time and never see a named item in my name and when I do get a named item I usually or always have filigree too. Filigree drop so much I barely look at them anymore. People that are amazed by six filigree in a row, are you speaking specifically of rare filigree with the extra bonuses? Because yes, okay, I do NOT see many of those drop and if I saw six in a row with the extra bonuses I would definitely be surprised. But who is surprised to see six filigree in a row while questing in content that regularly drops filigree? I think filigree are on an additional but separate drop table from the named loot, its not either/or. At least that has never been my experience with filigree.

 

[Felsyn]

I am a little confused when people are talking about Filigrees dropping. It is my experience that filigrees always or almost always drop in content to which they can drop in addition to named items. That is I can get filigree in quests that drop filigree the whole time and never see a named item in my name and when I do get a named item I usually or always have filigree too. Filigree drop so much I barely look at them anymore. People that are amazed by six filigree in a row, are you speaking specifically of rare filigree with the extra bonuses? Because yes, okay, I do NOT see many of those drop and if I saw six in a row with the extra bonuses I would definitely be surprised. But who is surprised to see six filigree in a row while questing in content that regularly drops filigree? I think filigree are on an additional but separate drop table from the named loot, its not either/or. At least that has never been my experience with filigree.

was just a thought experiment. If you use the actual odds of any single item in DDO it would just get more confusing for the example. The many layers to the loot, such as how many named items there are or if theres a rare named items table, only makes the perception of the loot probabilities even worse. The example was just a hypothetical 33% for Named Items and I used my example of finding 6 filigrees in a row the other day. replace it with 'Generic Named Item' and the example math is the same.