Seizing the Dawn loot drop bug

[Bheleram]

I recall it was announced that there had been a bug after U59 (aka lordsmarch chains update) regarding named drops in the whole chain including Seizing the Dawn.
I've just run the quest 6 or 7 times with no named drops (on heroic elite with a lvl 22 character).
Drop rates for elite difficulty are 33% base (i.e. without any buffs). Probability theory says it means a guaranteed drop every 4th run (and it has worked that way for me so far when I was doing farm runs).
Was the bug fixed? Is anyone else facing this problem?
Was there a nerf to loot drops that correlates with character lvl? (i.e. epic level characters get worse drop chances for heroic quests)

 

[Arkat]

Drop rates for elite difficulty are 33% base (i.e. without any buffs). Probability theory says it means a guaranteed drop every 4th run (and it has worked that way for me so far when I was doing farm runs).

1. Probability Theory says no such thing.

Probable ≠ Guaranteed in any universe.

2. I recall no mention by a Dev (or anyone else) that the drop rates in the new Lordsmarch chain were confirmed to be bugged. I saw some complaining about Thirteen not dropping enough for their tastes but RNG is like that.

Just because you have a 95% to win doesn't mean you WILL win 95% of the time. Each instance has its own chances and do not affect what happens in the next instance. You will ALWAYS have a 5% chance of losing even if you lost 10 times in a row. Losing the 11th time in a row is improbable, but not impossible.

 

[The Blonde]

I am not aware of the Planar Eyes chain having bugged lootrates.

7, 8, or even 10 runs with no named drop is something that is not unlikely to happen. I'd keep trying!

 

[erousted8]

Probability theory certainly says thats possible, but the probability of it happening is quite low.

 

[Dragavon]

Probability theory says it means a guaranteed drop every 4th run (and it has worked that way for me so far when I was doing farm runs).

It does not in any way guarantee that. If you think it does then you do not understand probability or how RNG works.

You have just had some bad luck. It happens.

 

[vryxnr]

Drop rates for elite difficulty are 33% base (i.e. without any buffs). Probability theory says it means a guaranteed drop every 4th run (and it has worked that way for me so far when I was doing farm runs).

That is not how that works, and it has never worked that way, and Probability Theory definitely does NOT say what you think it says.

33% chance for loot does not guarantee anything. just because you can relabel it to 1/3rd chance that does not actually guarantee 1 in every 3 will for sure be a success. It means that over the course of thousands upon thousands of lootings, it will average out to 1 in 3 or 33% will have named loot, but in the course of narrowing down the probability you can experience outlier strings of luck/bad luck.

If one were to map this out on a graph, it would start out flat, where things appear completely random and all over the place. Slowly it will evolve into a bell curve. With enough reiterations that bell will narrow into a spike pointing to the probability. But when looking at a small sample size, it's very possible to get a string of positive or even a long string of negative results all in a row.

Each time one opens a chest, the chance of a named item dropping does NOT take into consideration if you did or did not get an item the previous time you looted. The % does not add to itself each time. It remains as is, and thus can give you negative results many times in a row, or if you're lucky give you many more positive results in a row, more than the % chance would indicate. But over many many many more iterations, it will average out to the proper % chance.

 

[Xaerxiessia]

means 66,6666.. % chance to loot nothing
for X runs : 0,666666 ^ X

for 4 runs : 0,66666 ^ 4 = 0.19753086419753086419753086419753 or 19,753 % chances you loot nothing

100% - 19,753% = 80,247 % you loot something

 

[jwel]

I recall it was announced that there had been a bug after U59 (aka lordsmarch chains update) regarding named drops in the whole chain including Seizing the Dawn.
I've just run the quest 6 or 7 times with no named drops (on heroic elite with a lvl 22 character).
Drop rates for elite difficulty are 33% base (i.e. without any buffs). Probability theory says it means a guaranteed drop every 4th run (and it has worked that way for me so far when I was doing farm runs).
Was the bug fixed? Is anyone else facing this problem?
Was there a nerf to loot drops that correlates with character lvl? (i.e. epic level characters get worse drop chances for heroic quests)

You have a roughly 6% chance to get nothing from 7 runs. 4% on 8. The probability of getting the one item that you want in a quest with 4 items solo no rerolls on 8 runs is 50%.