Whats happening with the loot...?

[Sylvanush]

Hi, I just wondering. I have been playing since 2006. Recently noticed and looks like now to get named loot you need to pay so you can get it. Running diff content from R4 to R10 and the drop for named items seems to be diminished too almost nonexistent. Even using treasure hunter elixirs, elixirs of discovery and other methods to get loot like; greater mark to bless the chest and increase the chance to get named items and even rerolling chests with astral shards, but the drop rates has been RIDICULOUS to the point that if you don't reroll the chests spending RIDICULOUS NUMBER of shards, you can't get named loot. The point of play R10 (highest diff possible) is to increase the chance to get reaper or mythic items boosted and instead we are just getting KORTHOS LOOT when we finally got named loot at level 32 quests, in other words just trash, not even mythic +1 loot in R10s (ah and that rerolling the chests with elixirs etc).

@Devs Please verify what is going on. I rather want back to put the reaper crafting @100 frags and increase the drop rate again on reaper gear than keep playing R10s for weeks rerolling chest and don't get even Mythic +1 gear and just getting KORTHOS LOOT at Lv 32 for the love of God Sake is so FRUSTRATING and EXPENSIVE that is not fun anymore.

Thanks!

 

[DBZ]

Hardcores on gota milk those whales

 

[vryxnr]

... just getting KORTHOS LOOT at Lv 32 ...

Wut?

 

[J1NG]

Wut?

Apparently OP feels that if a named item drop does not have Mythic or Reaper bonus on it, it is not a named item, but instead nothing more than Korthos Loot.

J1NG

 

[dur]

Hi, I just wondering. I have been playing since 2006. Recently noticed and looks like now to get named loot you need to pay so you can get it. Running diff content from R4 to R10 and the drop for named items seems to be diminished too almost nonexistent. Even using treasure hunter elixirs, elixirs of discovery and other methods to get loot like; greater mark to bless the chest and increase the chance to get named items and even rerolling chests with astral shards, but the drop rates has been RIDICULOUS to the point that if you don't reroll the chests spending RIDICULOUS NUMBER of shards, you can't get named loot. The point of play R10 (highest diff possible) is to increase the chance to get reaper or mythic items boosted and instead we are just getting KORTHOS LOOT when we finally got named loot at level 32 quests, in other words just trash, not even mythic +1 loot in R10s (ah and that rerolling the chests with elixirs etc).

@Devs Please verify what is going on. I rather want back to put the reaper crafting @100 frags and increase the drop rate again on reaper gear than keep playing R10s for weeks rerolling chest and don't get even Mythic +1 gear and just getting KORTHOS LOOT at Lv 32 for the love of God Sake is so FRUSTRATING and EXPENSIVE that is not fun anymore.

Thanks!

RNG (RandomNumberGenerator d20) aka The Loot roll. And there's more than one. Wiki probably breaks it down but it seems to me, the first roll is luck, then loot level, then additional effect, (then 4th effect/mythic?) and who know's where Reaper effect roll comes in. I gave up on trying to figure out what roll(s) the potions affect. *Although we get a hint with the Elixers of Discovery and others.

Would love to see actual stats on 'loot bonus' potions/elixers. I despise AS reroll, but clearly that plays a roll as well.. er...

Be nice if a dev/designer would comment here

 

[Blunt Hackett]

Elite seems to be dropping mythic gear fine. I've looted a lot lately with no rerolls. I can't speak for rerolls, elixir use, raids, reaper, or post-Saltmarsh content though.

 

[The Blonde]

Wut?

Apparently OP feels that if a named item drop does not have Mythic or Reaper bonus on it, it is not a named item, but instead nothing more than Korthos Loot.

J1NG

That is not the point of the OP guys, as I'm sure you can tell.

 

[J1NG]

That is not the point of the OP guys, as I'm sure you can tell.

Well, I was responding to a post and responded as a genuine query and answer response as I normally do.

I could definitely tell that was not what OP was trying to hint towards. But didn't feel there was anything to really respond to in OP that wouldn't make OP and others upset over what I write. But, here we are.

Simply put, OP fell victim to what is known as "Gamblers Fallacy". And OP should be a good warning for players who don't understand RNG Loot drops to not re-roll unless if you're happy to do so.

J1NG

 

[Drunken.dx]

Rng is a moody *BLEEP*.

I've been triple boxing lost gatekeepers lately to get minor arti for my buffer cleric.

Last chain going for all chests I got 5 artis.

All were those shoe minor artis that drop there.

EACH OF THEM.

RNG Y U DO DIS TO ME?

 

[Onyxia2016]

See multiple threads on the subject.

In short something is definitely wrong with the named item drop rate. Bad luck it one thing but this goes way beyond that.
The static group I run with do R1 at level and are in the 6.37% drop rate through Saltmarch, Feywild, IoD and 1/2 way through Ravenloft.
This is the second time this group has run lives through these expansions looting the same number of chest with almost same drop rate.
Second time through was almost 7% but we missed 2 rares so if they were a bust the rate would have been back to the low 6% or if they had something we may have broke 8%. Far cry from the 34% chance the wiki mentions for heroic R1.

There will be some that post they are getting close to 40% drop rates, I don't know what to say to that. I would hope they are being honest and not just trolling or maybe they are running with elixirs of discovery to increase the base rate.

I can only speak to what I and my group are experiencing.

 

[Lacci]

I don´t have any statistics and this is certainly very subjective, but in the last maybe 2-3 months I felt like I got way less named items than before.
I had several runs where I got 0-1 named items from a full Sharn or Saltmarsh saga. IoD drops the dino crafting items like crazy but regular named loot was on the same level as Sharn or Saltmarsh.
And I´m not speaking of specific items, but any named items.

Now I realize that only because that happens to me a couple of times doesn´t mean the RNG is "broken". But it certainly does not feel very motivating, for example I completely gave up on unlocking any more filigree slots.

 

[The Narc]

See multiple threads on the subject.

In short something is definitely wrong with the named item drop rate. Bad luck it one thing but this goes way beyond that.
The static group I run with do R1 at level and are in the 6.37% drop rate through Saltmarch, Feywild, IoD and 1/2 way through Ravenloft.
This is the second time this group has run lives through these expansions looting the same number of chest with almost same drop rate.
Second time through was almost 7% but we missed 2 rares so if they were a bust the rate would have been back to the low 6% or if they had something we may have broke 8%. Far cry from the 34% chance the wiki mentions for heroic R1.

There will be some that post they are getting close to 40% drop rates, I don't know what to say to that. I would hope they are being honest and not just trolling or maybe they are running with elixirs of discovery to increase the base rate.

I can only speak to what I and my group are experiencing.

Its not that, its that the devs from multiple hardcores have the analytics on which itens are most commonly actually used by players. I speculate that they have made sure these now drop much less than other useless named items, ie someone says they pulled named items in a chest but they are including ferrocrystal weapons as a named item drop(not a drop just a useless fluff filler that the devs use to help people say there are 40% named drops).

I dont hesitate to say that I believe that the devs are customizing named drops on a quest by quest basis. The game is a business with the goals of making money, that does noe preclude them wanting to milk every last dollar that they can.

 

[Nokowi]

When loot chances go wrong it it typically that they have added something else to the loot table. You might think a 1 in 6 drop means 1/6th of the time but if something else gets added it has sometimes been in addition to the current loot table. Say 5% chance of the new thing and then 1 in 6 chance the other 95% of the time.

 

[The Blonde]

Simply put, OP fell victim to what is known as "Gamblers Fallacy". And OP should be a good warning for players who don't understand RNG Loot drops to not re-roll unless if you're happy to do so.

It seems to me (taking your responses in other threads on this subject into account) that you are not very open to the possibility of something being wrong with named loot drop rates. Is my sentiment correct?

 

[J1NG]

It seems to me (taking your responses in other threads on this subject into account) that you are not open to the possibility of something being wrong with named loot drop rates. Is my sentiment correct?

Quite the contrary, I am very open to it being the case (that something is wrong), else I would not be bothering with testing all the time to help track things down at my own expense of time and resources. Even when they are clearly dead ends, as I want to eliminate the possibility of something with even the smallest chance of being wrong to be found and corrected.

But when the evidence being presented is lacklustre in the face of other factors that need to be taken account that could be causing a problem with the presented results being reliable and certain, these other factors are being dismissed so only one view is taken (the views being presented that something is wrong), I am not going to support it. Not before sufficient appropriate data (results) is gathered that helps reduces the chance of an erroneous conclusion being made.

J1NG

 

[The Narc]

I didn’t know we had play-testers on the payroll!?!?

 

[Onyxia2016]

In order to do a proper analysis, some base rules need to be observed by all those testing.

1) Be honest. No padding numbers or making assumptions. Facts only.
2) Same chest have to be looted at the same level/difficulty.
3) Only count chests that are known to have named loot (not all do)
4) Guaranteed name drops for X number of completions should not be counted as these bypass standard loot rules
5) No elixirs of discovery use
6) do not count expansion specific weapon drops (ferrocrystal, barovian, reliquary, etc...)

Per my understanding each player in a group gets their own loot roll so not simply one roll for the entire group.
This means that a group with 3 players would count as three individual loots for each chest.

Technically the numbers I have shared so far on drops is worse when looking at the individual level as I was counting the number of named drops for the entire party, not tracking at the player level. There was one expansion that I received no named items out of all the quest in the expansion. Last life it was Feywild. I remember it due to discussion the group had at the end for the last quest in the chain. Something to the effect that I must have pissed off the gods bigtime to get nothing.

I am running with a static group of three, me and two others. We are doing Saltmarsh, Feywild, TBC, IoD, Ravenloft and Sharn (Masterminds and Cogs). Tracking drops at the group level (need to start over at the player level) started last life and we are 1/2 way through Ravenloft on another life. These are characters with the same number of PL's (10 so far). We each have other characters but these are the ones we play together.
I think this setup would eliminate the potential inconsistencies that could skew the results leave just the named loot generation algorithm to determine drops.

 

[The Blonde]

Quite the contrary, I am very open to it being the case (that something is wrong), else I would not be bothering with testing all the time to help track things down at my own expense of time and resources. Even when they are clearly dead ends, as I want to eliminate the possibility of something with even the smallest chance of being wrong to be found and corrected.

But when the evidence being presented is lacklustre in the face of other factors that need to be taken account that could be causing a problem with the presented results being reliable and certain, these other factors are being dismissed so only one view is taken (the views being presented that something is wrong), I am not going to support it. Not before sufficient appropriate data (results) is gathered that helps reduces the chance of an erroneous conclusion being made.

J1NG

Given that it is orders-of-magnitude harder to prove this particular bug compared to the ones we usually test, wouldn't you think it best to not vocally oppose people's sentiment that something is wrong (by citing insufficient data)? Let me explain.

Let's say we are practically unable to prove this problem exists.

- If the bug exists, and all we have is some "idea" of it (because in this hypothetical we can't prove it), then the best we can do is post our opinion about it here and wait for it to be looked at. Then the devs take a look, and they fix the bug (because it actually exists in this scenario).

- If the bug doesn't exist, and our collective experiences are indeed just bad luck, then what is really the damage of asking the devs to look for something that doesn't really exist (and we can't determine ourselves)? Their time?

What I'm trying to point out is that in the case of a bug that we can't realistically pinpoint ourselves, the damage done by stiffling player sentiment (by requesting scientific irrefutable results) is greater than the damage caused if the bug really exists and nothing is done about it (because people who talk about it without hard evidence are being dismissed).

My whole thesis of course can be countered if you believe that we *can* prove this ourselves. But even if we could (and we can't, with all due respect to the simplest cost-benefit ratio), it would take a *tiny* fraction of the time it would take the devs to do so.

I very much respect you and then things you do for the game and its community, but I think you're asking too much of us this one time.

 

[The Narc]

In order to do a proper analysis, some base rules need to be observed by all those testing.

1) Be honest. No padding numbers or making assumptions. Facts only.
2) Same chest have to be looted at the same level/difficulty.
3) Only count chests that are known to have named loot (not all do)
4) Guaranteed name drops for X number of completions should not be counted as these bypass standard loot rules
5) No elixirs of discovery use
6) do not count expansion specific weapon drops (ferrocrystal, barovian, reliquary, etc...)

Per my understanding each player in a group gets their own loot roll so not simply one roll for the entire group.
This means that a group with 3 players would count as three individual loots for each chest.

Technically the numbers I have shared so far on drops is worse when looking at the individual level as I was counting the number of named drops for the entire party, not tracking at the player level. There was one expansion that I received no named items out of all the quest in the expansion. Last life it was Feywild. I remember it due to discussion the group had at the end for the last quest in the chain. Something to the effect that I must have pissed off the gods bigtime to get nothing.

I am running with a static group of three, me and two others. We are doing Saltmarsh, Feywild, TBC, IoD, Ravenloft and Sharn (Masterminds and Cogs). Tracking drops at the group level (need to start over at the player level) started last life and we are 1/2 way through Ravenloft on another life. These are characters with the same number of PL's (10 so far). We each have other characters but these are the ones we play together.
I think this setup would eliminate the potential inconsistencies that could skew the results leave just the named loot generation algorithm to determine drops.

I think if you are going to do this you should actually name the items looted in the results so we can determine if the named items being given are even useful, some items equate to not useful to any class or race and the devs have created them as fluff to lower the effective named drop rate. To give a prime example of this, i will use trolls lair in gianthold which contains both the jewelled cloak and the mountains fist, the mountains fist is an utterly useless named drop but decreases the potential jewelled cloak drop rate by 50%, and i have many groups that hit this spot every hardcore and the results are always the same more mountains fist than jewelled cloaks so i have my doubts that the drop rate is split evenly between the two, of course this was not the case in early hardcores.

 

[PraetorPlato]

I have 4 jeweled cloaks (and have thrown out at least one more/left in chest), 0 mountain's fists (never pulled one)