FREE GOLD ROLLS
- Thread starter larrtdale
- Start date
FVSHasBeenEvenMoreGutted
Well-known member
can confirm, have heard the rumors of this being true
HoopleHead
Well-known member
It's like getting socked in the gut when you hear that 'ka-TUNK!' sound and know you just got a 1k stone & some plat... 
I have rolled probably 10 100s in the past year. Plenty in the 90s. I have also rolled a few 1s, a ton in the 2-15s.
RNG is just that.
Flip a two sided coin 100 times, and the 101 time is still just 50%, no matter what has come before. A string of 10, 20 heads on that coin means nothing, and does not imply that the next flip will be a tail.
In a d6 world, I have managed to roll the same number on a die (same die), consecutively, 8 times. In a d6 world where I need a 1 in 6, I have rolled 2-6 more than 20 times in a row before getting that 1. "Odds" are 1 in 6, or 15ish% per roll. At the end of that streak of 20+some, the odds remained 15%ish percent. The _do not change_. Trying to "account" for 20+ failures in a row in no way impacts the likelihood of getting the desired outcome in the next roll, or the roll after, or the roll after.
There are no patterns in chance, nor ways to hedge your bets.
RNG is just that.
Flip a two sided coin 100 times, and the 101 time is still just 50%, no matter what has come before. A string of 10, 20 heads on that coin means nothing, and does not imply that the next flip will be a tail.
In a d6 world, I have managed to roll the same number on a die (same die), consecutively, 8 times. In a d6 world where I need a 1 in 6, I have rolled 2-6 more than 20 times in a row before getting that 1. "Odds" are 1 in 6, or 15ish% per roll. At the end of that streak of 20+some, the odds remained 15%ish percent. The _do not change_. Trying to "account" for 20+ failures in a row in no way impacts the likelihood of getting the desired outcome in the next roll, or the roll after, or the roll after.
There are no patterns in chance, nor ways to hedge your bets.
Lazuli
Well-known member
I don't think the dice is loaded, but the reward pyramid is very inclined to give bad results. Not only is it that only high numbers can give something nice, but within each category there is a lot of garbage.
For example, not so long ago in an 80+ roll (86 or 88, I don't remember), I got a sun flask. My reaction was what the ****? This junk shouldn't even belong to gold dice. I have been a VIP for many, many years; I've gotten a 100 several times, but rarely was the reward worthy of an "oh great!". The other few times I've gotten a 100 it was more of a: meh... but at least the xp will be worth it in a TR.
Anyway, it is random, and I'll take this as a perk if they make it permanent. It's better than nothing, and at least it lets us avoid the first few levels in a TR. And sometimes you get something nice. It's rare, but sometimes.
For example, not so long ago in an 80+ roll (86 or 88, I don't remember), I got a sun flask. My reaction was what the ****? This junk shouldn't even belong to gold dice. I have been a VIP for many, many years; I've gotten a 100 several times, but rarely was the reward worthy of an "oh great!". The other few times I've gotten a 100 it was more of a: meh... but at least the xp will be worth it in a TR.
Anyway, it is random, and I'll take this as a perk if they make it permanent. It's better than nothing, and at least it lets us avoid the first few levels in a TR. And sometimes you get something nice. It's rare, but sometimes.
DYWYPI
Well-known member
Gamblers light candles for the days...
It is important to note, that the joint probability of two events occurring refers only to events that have not happened yet. With a 6-Sided dice chances of any number coming up twice in a row are: 1/6, not 1/36. This is because there are six possible ways (opportunities) of getting the same number twice in a row: (1/6) × (1/6) × 6 = 6/36 = 1/6. "The dice have no memory".
The 'Daily Dice' roll rewards have different size ranges, for example the: 100 reward, is a single figure whereas: 81–90 covers ten figures. Basically there is no need for the roll itself to be skewed or unfairly loaded because the reward ranges already have different sizes.
The statistical term 'normal distribution' doesn't mean "ordinary" it represents real-valued random variables whose distributions are not known.
The gambler's fallacy is a cognitive bias, meaning that it's a systematic pattern of deviation from rationality, which occurs due to the way people's cognitive system works. It is primarily attributed to the expectation that even short sequences of outcomes will be highly representative of the process that generated them, and to the view of chance as a fair and self-correcting process.
There is insufficient evidence to suggest the "Daily Dice" are rigged regarding the rolls themselves (refer to [Post #40]).
Events are just plain erratic (fundamental uncertainty). Random events are often described as 'clumpy' because clumps of 'wins' or 'losses' sometimes occur.
Nothing is certain; nothing is ever due to happen (independence of events).
Things do not have to even out, but sometimes seem to, as more observations are added (law of large numbers).
Law of Large Numbers: As the sample size increases the average of the actual outcomes will more closely approximate the mathematical probability.
A sampling error is a statistical error that occurs when an analyst does not select a sample that represents the entire population of data. As a result, the results found in the sample do not represent the results that would be obtained from the entire population.
Another problem is that the human mind is predisposed to find patterns and does so very efficiently. For example, natural formations like the "face" in the Cydonia Mensae region of Mars, or the "Man in the moon", which have human-like features, are interpreted as images of people. If a person was walking in the jungle and saw a pattern of light and dark stripes in the shadows, it would be prudent to assume that the pattern was a tiger and act accordingly. The consequences of incorrectly assuming that the pattern is not a tiger far outweigh those of incorrectly assuming that it is. But when applied to random events, this survival "skill" leads to errors.
We learn through experience and logically induce general rules on that basis. If our experience is limited, we may induce the wrong rule. A chance occurrence may lead to false expectations. As a result, a win the first time one plays a game, or a win after some extraneous event, may lead to the formulation of an erroneous general rule.
Why do people act this way time and time again? We can discover intriguing insights; it seems, by recruiting monkeys and getting them to gamble too. If these animals make dumb choices like us, perhaps it could tell us more about ourselves.
It is important to note, that the joint probability of two events occurring refers only to events that have not happened yet. With a 6-Sided dice chances of any number coming up twice in a row are: 1/6, not 1/36. This is because there are six possible ways (opportunities) of getting the same number twice in a row: (1/6) × (1/6) × 6 = 6/36 = 1/6. "The dice have no memory".
The 'Daily Dice' roll rewards have different size ranges, for example the: 100 reward, is a single figure whereas: 81–90 covers ten figures. Basically there is no need for the roll itself to be skewed or unfairly loaded because the reward ranges already have different sizes.
The statistical term 'normal distribution' doesn't mean "ordinary" it represents real-valued random variables whose distributions are not known.
The gambler's fallacy is a cognitive bias, meaning that it's a systematic pattern of deviation from rationality, which occurs due to the way people's cognitive system works. It is primarily attributed to the expectation that even short sequences of outcomes will be highly representative of the process that generated them, and to the view of chance as a fair and self-correcting process.
There is insufficient evidence to suggest the "Daily Dice" are rigged regarding the rolls themselves (refer to [Post #40]).
Originally Posted by DYWYPI (Daily Gold Rolls)
[...] Applying (Pearson's chi-squared test) for that dice should be plenty enough to tell you if the dice is likely to be biased.
One of the more interesting "goodness-of-fit" applications of the chi-square test is to examine issues of "fairness" and "cheating" in games of chance, such as cards, dice, and roulette. ;-)
So we need to look to see if the 'observed values' are close to the 'expected values', which I crudely mentioned in the prior post.
[...]
Robust Statistical Analysis using (Chi-squared test)
Total amount of Observations (dice rolls): 1274
Expected Frequency per any d100 single face occurrence (1274 × 1/100): 12.74
Null Hypothesis (H₀): Dice is fair (unbiased)
Alternative Hypothesis (H₁): Dice is unfair (biased)
Level of Significance, i.e. area in the tail: (alpha) 0.01
Degrees of Freedom (DF); Sample size (total rolls, i.e. distinct possible categories, we used 100 rows to record), minus one (N – 1): 100 – 1 = (DF): 99.
For finding the Critical value (tail of graph and rejection region area). We'll just use 99 for DF, as I don't have specialised statistics software and I'm not calculating it longhand (DF 99 is solid enough) for this dice.
Looking on an official Chi-square table using (DF 99) and (alpha 0.01) Critical value, i.e. P-value (probability): 134.642 rounded 134.64.
Therefore if our dice exceeds the (above) P-value [134.642] "Daily Dice" is likely loaded.
Chi square: χ² = sum [(Observed − Expected)²/Expected]
For example using [Post #10] data: Roll 1; Observed value 12, minus Expected value: 12.74 (squared) divisible by Expected 12.74, equals: 0.042983... Then rinse and repeat, i.e. total all the χ² for 1274 rolls.
Our Test Statistic equals: 108.4176
We can easily see: 108.4176 is far less than P-value: [134.642].
Therefore we fail to reject: Null Hypothesis (H₀): (we accept) Dice is fair (unbiased)
The roll results and calculations can be found within: [Post #42].
Conclusion
The "Daily dice" DO NOT appear to be loaded. In fact the statistical model shows there is an excellent chance of ~ 99% percent the dice aren't loaded. (That's what the alpha 0.01 value we tested against means basically).
Events are just plain erratic (fundamental uncertainty). Random events are often described as 'clumpy' because clumps of 'wins' or 'losses' sometimes occur.
Nothing is certain; nothing is ever due to happen (independence of events).
Things do not have to even out, but sometimes seem to, as more observations are added (law of large numbers).
Law of Large Numbers: As the sample size increases the average of the actual outcomes will more closely approximate the mathematical probability.
A sampling error is a statistical error that occurs when an analyst does not select a sample that represents the entire population of data. As a result, the results found in the sample do not represent the results that would be obtained from the entire population.
Another problem is that the human mind is predisposed to find patterns and does so very efficiently. For example, natural formations like the "face" in the Cydonia Mensae region of Mars, or the "Man in the moon", which have human-like features, are interpreted as images of people. If a person was walking in the jungle and saw a pattern of light and dark stripes in the shadows, it would be prudent to assume that the pattern was a tiger and act accordingly. The consequences of incorrectly assuming that the pattern is not a tiger far outweigh those of incorrectly assuming that it is. But when applied to random events, this survival "skill" leads to errors.
We learn through experience and logically induce general rules on that basis. If our experience is limited, we may induce the wrong rule. A chance occurrence may lead to false expectations. As a result, a win the first time one plays a game, or a win after some extraneous event, may lead to the formulation of an erroneous general rule.
Why do people act this way time and time again? We can discover intriguing insights; it seems, by recruiting monkeys and getting them to gamble too. If these animals make dumb choices like us, perhaps it could tell us more about ourselves.
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Not really monitoring but ive had a 10k and 15k xp reward which is what i like from these daily gold rolls .... anything else is nice but high exp banking for the next TR is what im after
I am VERY happy with having the Gold Rolls
Please make this permanent feature for VIPS. This alone would make me personally happy to continue to VIP
Been threaded to death but the main reason I VIP is to "sponsor" the game I love.
I am VERY happy with having the Gold Rolls
Please make this permanent feature for VIPS. This alone would make me personally happy to continue to VIP
Been threaded to death but the main reason I VIP is to "sponsor" the game I love.
Fhrek
One Badge of Honor achieved
Same!
True! Agree as well!
I had the same feeling, but looks SSG don't see it as mutual, so they need to do something to get my confidence back to invest more beyond VIP subs.
PaleFox
Well-known member
To make things more fairly distributed, I'd rather see that we'd get a fixed 100 slot scratch ticket where we strike off one each day.
And then get a token that you can bring to a vendor where you can pick your reward from a barter window.
I mean, I have like 5 of the same outfits that I can't trade in for glam dust (or whatever it is called.)
And then I see all those Nightmare stallions.
And then get a token that you can bring to a vendor where you can pick your reward from a barter window.
I mean, I have like 5 of the same outfits that I can't trade in for glam dust (or whatever it is called.)
And then I see all those Nightmare stallions.
Fhrek
One Badge of Honor achieved
It would be an awesome new VIP Perk - the daily consecutive login, like many other games have. Each day their prize gets better and better for each consecutive login, if the player fail to login starts all over again.
Has the pro to keep people login at least once a day and never forget DDO. While the daily dice is so underwhelming people gets annoyed and don't to log "just" for it.
And I rolled a 99 today. Got epic glowing purple eyes.
T.O.
Well-known member
It also had a golden D20. I am beginning to think it's because we are really just rolling a D20 and getting 1000xp and some plat.
