So your hypothesis is that there is a player demographic that would do that instead of just pulling and looting hundreds of space filling filigrees and slotting in a non rare until they pulled the rare they were looking for, just to get that extra +2 prr. I would think that player is more likely to but quality of life things such as space or the last expansion with their hard earned ddo points from favor, or maybe even xp pots for faster tring or saving for otto boxes. What is the wxact demographic of players in this game that would be within that range of “entirely possible” that I or maybe others would consider being foolish/unreasonable to spend their hard earned ddo points on astral shards. Astral shards are bought with cash by those that lack the time or patience and need a quick fix, and as per my original post it is much cheaper to spend enough ddo points on a supreme tome then bother waisting it on the astral shard and astral shard auction house(albeit my recommendation is to not spend your ddo points on either and save them for expansion releases, for my own personal reason i follow this train of thought)
So sorry your case wouldnt hold up as reasonable doubt but you are free to try again. Any experienced player playing enough to earn 500 ddo points via favor is certainly playing enough to have pulled mass amounts of filigrees and isnt going to be spending, but i am open ears to you describing the type of player that fits into your hypothesis.