Named item drop rate shadow nerfed?

[The Narc]

Also a lot of named drops are completely inappropriate to the class or race of the character looting, so soloing you end up on a melee human getting all kinds of spellcaster crap and docents, or on a spellcaster you get all kinds of weapons and shields and armor!

It happens way too often to not be by design.

 

[The Narc]

Did the Feywild chain LR4 this afternoon, all quests.

Here is the imgur link with 14 screenshots

Summary:

8 named items
4 ferrocrystal weapons
2 artifacts
1 named augment

Quest order and estimated pulls:
4 Frosty Reception
4 Quid
4 Icemount curse
1 Make believe
2 Endless revels
1 Windmill
2 Gulthias tree
1 Thornwright
4 Witch hunt
2 Needle
1 Lost locket
4 Immortality
1 Wake me up

31 total pulls

8/31 = 25.8% drop rate

Better than yesterday

Yeah and how many of the actual pulls between the ferrocrystal weapons and the items were relevant to your build, or for that matter items that were even wanted i comparison to other items that could have dropped from that chest.

This is why using astral shards to reroll chests is a suckers bet, the house is already set to win. The reason they dont post anything on the drop rates is because then they would be bound to those guidelines and wouldnt want to give out false information.

 

[Wisefreelancer]

Also a lot of named drops are completely inappropriate to the class or race of the character looting, so soloing you end up on a melee human getting all kinds of spellcaster crap and docents, or on a spellcaster you get all kinds of weapons and shields and armor!

It happens way too often to not be by design.

Yeah and how many of the actual pulls between the ferrocrystal weapons and the items were relevant to your build, or for that matter items that were even wanted i comparison to other items that could have dropped from that chest.

This is a terrible take.

All named loot drops equally (in almost all quests - there will be some odd exception). To cater to a wide variety of characters, named loot is made for all different classes and races.

So of course you get gear you don't need on any given character. How else would you have it work? Make named item drops weighted by character class or race? What if you want to farm gear for a different life? Or an alt? Or (gasp) for a friend?

No one ever promised named drops would be the specific item you are looking for. Only that named drops would happen at a statistically set frequency.

There is an awful lot of anecdote in this thread from every side - flip a coin a hundred times and you will likely get at least one run of 4-6 heads, even if that sounds improbable if you only flip it 6 times. That doesn't mean probability is broken...

 

[The Blonde]

I think everything of substance that could be said in this thread has already been said. As was noted from the very beginning, the devs have been informed of the situation and will look into it. We can move on for now.

 

[Rathy]

Oh, I think it has not been nerfed based on my pulls. Since it is random and unless you know the variability it's crazy-hard to measure with small samples and this thread reads at points like superstitious gamblers, lol! Just teasing; I dunno how the RNG gods work!

Oh and anytime the classic coin-flip example is used in random discussions like here,

...flip a coin a hundred times and you will likely get at least one run of 4-6 heads, even if that sounds improbable if you only flip it 6 times. That doesn't mean probability is broken...

I think of this bit from the movie/play! It's a bit long at 5 mins but if you know the clip you know what I mean!

 

[The Narc]

This is a terrible take.

All named loot drops equally (in almost all quests - there will be some odd exception). To cater to a wide variety of characters, named loot is made for all different classes and races.

So of course you get gear you don't need on any given character. How else would you have it work? Make named item drops weighted by character class or race? What if you want to farm gear for a different life? Or an alt? Or (gasp) for a friend?

No one ever promised named drops would be the specific item you are looking for. Only that named drops would happen at a statistically set frequency.

There is an awful lot of anecdote in this thread from every side - flip a coin a hundred times and you will likely get at least one run of 4-6 heads, even if that sounds improbable if you only flip it 6 times. That doesn't mean probability is broken...

Feel free to try and dismiss, but what i was pointing at is that the pulls are bias towards the opposite of what class and race you are currently playing taking in account feats and playstyle even.

So yes i could say your idea of farming for a different build wiuld be a cery fruitful way to go i some cases where loot is solely calls/race based.

Unfortunately that does bot hold true for the example of the jewelled cloak in gianthold where you are way more likely to pull the mountains fist when a named item is actually pulled in trolls lair, and unsupported by me i have watched people in my groups astral shard rerolls only to tine and again pull the mountain fist over the jewelled cloak. My response to them was, do you not think the house would fix the deck as there is nothing that regulates them fron doing that. Astral shard rerolls are pure income generators, this is an easy way to abuse that power.

 

[Buddha5440]

Been playing this game for a long time and been on the good and bad side of RNG/Luck so I am fully aware of how that goes.
I also know when something seems to be out of the norm. ...

You do realize that "norm" and random are mutually exclusive. You can't know that something random is out of the norm.

 

[Buddha5440]

In theory, 1000 pulls from one player, or character is not actually a good sample size. At least, not in a game aspect where a players luck could impact it.

The issue is that certain players and/or characters are for some reason, luckier or unluckier than others. And even players running on different times would yield varying returns on their lucky/unlucky characters. But this doesn't tell us what the luck is from; the player, character, or time played.

Realistically to avoid this unusual form of loot bias (that exists but can not be countered normally), you'd want 10 players doing 1000 pulls across 10 characters from each player, across 10 different play times, for 10 pulls, to eliminate this "luck" aspect that could plague certain characters in a positive or negative light. Or indeed, have 100 players pull 10 name drop chests across 10 different play times, etc. And build up a picture from that.

J1NG

What can you say... Haters gonna hate.

It seems like very few in this thread understand what "RANDOM" means. I recommend taking a statistics class (even 101 would suffice).

 

[Buddha5440]

Yesterday I did a full Feywild R10 run... 6+ items dropped for me (no re-rolls). I have no idea how the rest of the party fared.

Did you go out afterwards and buy a lottery ticket? Seems like your luck was in the right place to win big.

 

[Steeme]

Did the Dread chain LR4 this morning, all quests.

Here is the imgur link with 11 screenshots

Summary:

7 named items from Quest chests
2 named items from Wilderness chests
2 dino bone items from Quest chests


Quest/wilderness order and estimated pulls:
4 Intro quest
4 Crab
1 Tar pit
4 Ettercap wilderness rare
1 Ettercap lair
4 Ettercap wilderness rare repeat
1 Wild Thing
3 Whisper
2 TRex
4 Glabrezu Wilderness for Black Pearls
1 Commodore Alaina
1 Bullywug
1 Stone Temple Gargoyles
2 Arena
2 Forbidden Temple

23 total quest pulls with 7 quest items = 7/23 = 30.43% (expected 37%)
12 total wilderness pulls with 2 wilderness items = 2 / 12 = 16.67% (expected 10%)

Better than yesterday and much better than the day before, quest chests still below expectations.

Conclusion? Nothing conclusive.

Edit: Forgot about Wild Thing quest, added one more pull which lowered the quest drop rate calc

 

[Notadrizztvariant]

Feel free to try and dismiss, but what i was pointing at is that the pulls are bias towards the opposite of what class and race you are currently playing taking in account feats and playstyle even.

So yes i could say your idea of farming for a different build wiuld be a cery fruitful way to go i some cases where loot is solely calls/race based.

Unfortunately that does bot hold true for the example of the jewelled cloak in gianthold where you are way more likely to pull the mountains fist when a named item is actually pulled in trolls lair, and unsupported by me i have watched people in my groups astral shard rerolls only to tine and again pull the mountain fist over the jewelled cloak. My response to them was, do you not think the house would fix the deck as there is nothing that regulates them fron doing that. Astral shard rerolls are pure income generators, this is an easy way to abuse that power.

Yeah, and Cordo could also have your chances lowered based on forum behaviour... Seriously, that is about the weirdest theory I have seen here in a long time. So you are saying the game checks your class/build down to your very feats and gives you items that do not fit well with a higher probability? Really? And the more interesting question is: You would keep interacting with a company that did such a thing and use their product???

 

[Dandonk]

So you are saying the game checks your class/build down to your very feats and gives you items that do not fit well with a higher probability?

Yeah. Conspiracy theories are all well and good, but expecting this level of sophistication when ladders are still wonky etc.... nah.

 

[Onyxia2016]

You do realize that "norm" and random are mutually exclusive. You can't know that something random is out of the norm.

I disagree. Even random events given a limited number of possibilities can be normalized.
But perhaps I should have use a fancier phrase like "Outside of standard deviation". I try not to do that as it make one sound pretentious.

If it were a single chest pull, I agree normal would not apply as there would be no base for comparison. By as I stated I have years of experience running these quests and pulling these chest. If it were a one off situation I could see it being a simple low RNG rolls but it has been constantly low after many pulls on different character and while statistically possible it is highly improbable.

Therefore I post this question to the forum to get input from others to see if there pulls are consistently low as well.

Thank you to those that have shared their data and experience so far.

 

[Col Kurtz]

I just have to laugh

just about everyone turns class rewards off but then expects better class rewards

Not saying that should help named drops...but we shouldn't be expecting something like a bride on her honeymoon either

 

[Onyxia2016]

Personally the only time I have class specific loot turned on is HC as I need items for the class I am playing. Other than take it is off.

While not changing the drop rate, per the wiki it does nothing if there is named or special ingredients.

Options/ rewards based on player class
On quest end reward lists that are entirely random, and have no chance of any named or special items appearing (including crafting ingredients such as from Necropolis or The Vale of Twilight), if the Class-Based End Rewards option is checked on, it will restrict the base type of the items that appear to specific types based on your class.

It has no function on any reward lists that can include any named items or special ingredients, and it does not restrict the effects that can appear on an item- only what types of items you'll see

 

[Phoenicis]

I just have to laugh

just about everyone turns class rewards off but then expects better class rewards

Not saying that should help named drops...but we shouldn't be expecting something like a bride on her honeymoon either

you know that setting ONLY applies to end rewards, right? Not chest drops?

 

[owl]

On HC I've run in 3bc over 50 times from 0 slayer to over 750 slayer trying to get the scrag bow, no luck at all until I gave up.

On orien, I've been running plane of night for years and still havent gotten the red armor and the helmet.

The drop rate there has always been low. You ransack the chest after 8 pulls and so for any given item it's not unusual to ransack before pulling your item.

 

[The Blonde]

The bug is very noticeable in heroic Vecna. Go ransack any of its quests/run the saga once and see how many named you pull (not reliquary/augments, as those are on different rolls; but you ain't gonna pull many of those either lol). If things were WAI, you'd be getting 1 named item every 3 end chests. Good luck with that.

 

[Br4d]

Maybe Vecna just has different drop rates than other older content?

 

[The Blonde]

Maybe Vecna just has different drop rates than other older content?

No. Because when the bug isn't present, Vecna's drop rates are working as intended.